Are we wasting our talents?
The IAAF World Junior Championships are just around the corner, and we have a lot of young quality athletes representing Australia in Barcelona. Let’s hope they can gain from this experience and use it as a stepping stone towards a senior World Championships or Olympic Games in coming years.
But before long, the focus will again be on the IAAF World Youth Championships (WYC), with many young talented athletes wanting to qualify.
I thought it would be interesting to make a more detailed analysis of the first three generations of Australian WYC participants, ie. athletes who participated in 1999, 2001, and 2003. What happened to them? What did they achieve subsequently?
The statistics confirm that very few of these talented teenagers actually make a successful transition through to the senior ranks. The statistics are really quite sobering…
Are we wasting our talents? What do you think?
Feel free to email me at jprobst@ozemail.com.au
http://www.scribd.com/doc/98226434/Analysis-First-Three-Generations-of-Australian-WYC-Participants
jorgprobst.wordpress.com 
While the success rate past the youth level may be low, it seems in line with what I’ve found among other countries when analyzing youth results in the hammer throw recently: http://www.mbingisser.com/2012/05/predicting-success-of-young-champions/
However, the doesn’t mean this is a problem that can be ignored just because other countries have the same problem. I think several factors come into play and you have to start asking, Were athletes not supported enough? Did they have the coaching needed to take them to the next level? Did early success push them to burn out? And so on.
But we also have to ask if the best at a young age should even be the best when they are older. Perhaps they were good not just because of “talent” but because they matured earlier or began the sport at an earlier age. Maybe their skill set gave them an advantage at the youth level (hammer throw, for example, is more about speed and less about technique and power at the youth level). Perhaps physiologically we need to look for “potential” rather than just “talent.” They are not always the same. As you’ve probably observed, some kids have better longer term development (they can develop slowly for a decade without a break, while other rise quickly to a plateau) or have other skills that help in the long run (skill acquisition, etc.). Just because you begin the journey ahead does not necessarily mean you are the best bet to finish first.